Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model for pricing
Attempts to value bitcoin using stock to flow formula.
- Stock = existing available supply of a scarce resource (gold, bitcoin, etc.)
- Flow = annual production of that resource
SF = stock / flow
The author uses this to calculate a SF value of 62 for gold, 22 for silver, and 25 for bitcoin at the time of writing. He plots SF and market value of bitcoin and these commodities, and uses this formula and data to predict a value of $55,000 per bitcoin following the May 2020 halving. This article was published in March 2019.
I don't think the formula will work indefinitely, since bitcoin flow eventually falls to 0, but it will be interesting to see if this hypothesis holds in the short term.