"Decade of Concern" for US military and corresponding window of opportunity for China

Author claims 2020's are a dangerous transition period for the US, and therefore offers China a good window of opportunity for military action to conquer Taiwain.

The author claims military spending can be bucketed into 3 main categories:

  1. Research: developing new technology
  2. Procurement: buying new military equipment based on research
  3. Operations/maintenance: using the procured equipment in war, and/or maintaining it to be ready for war

The author claims the US made some planning mistakes, and de-emphasized procurement in exchange for research and operations/maintenance spending. As a result, in the 2020's the US military will have to compensate for this by simultaneously decommissioning old equipment as it procures new equipment. He gives the example of submarines. Currently the US has around 60 attack submarines. A congressional report expects that number to go down to low 40's by 2028, before returning to above 60 in 2034 with newer submarines.

The new equipment is expected to have some advantages in a war against China, ie. in the Taiwan Strait. The author claims that China may be inclined to take advantage of the lull in US power and strike at a low point.